🇹🇷 Exports in 2026:
🎯 SUMMARY
The outlook for 2026 is stagnation.
Expected inflation of 22–25% will continue to put pressure on production costs.
Unless the government resorts to artificial devaluation of the lira or direct subsidies, Türkiye risks losing markets to cheaper competitors (Egypt, Vietnam, Bangladesh).
Advice to investors: In 2026, avoid labor-intensive sectors (textiles, furniture) in Türkiye. The focus is shifting toward capital-intensive industries where the share of labor costs in prime cost is lower.
Why are exports growing only on paper while the real sector is contracting? Analyzing the mathematics of the crisis.
👇 Anatomy of the Problem:
✂️ 1. The Deadly "Scissors": Costs vs. Foreign Exchange
The primary complaint among businesses is the gap between cost growth and exchange rates over the past 4 years. Exporters spend in liras (wages, taxes) while earning foreign currency (which is appreciating too slowly).
Statistics over 4 years:
- Minimum wage growth: +560%
- Inflation: +367%
- USD appreciation: +210%
Conclusion: Personnel expenses have grown 2.5 times faster than foreign currency revenues have increased. This has wiped out margins.
📉 2. The Illusion of Growth and the Parity Effect
Officially, exports grew by 4.5% in 2025.
Concentration: The growth was driven by just 3 sectors and 5 major corporations.
Collapse of newcomers: The number of first-time exporters fell by 15%. New firms cannot offer competitive pricing and are not even attempting to enter foreign markets.
🏭 3. Survival Strategy: "Downsizing"
Companies are no longer thinking about expansion.
The trend: Firms are deliberately downsizing (cutting staff, reducing output) to find an "optimal point" and minimize losses.
Investment paralysis: In the manufacturing sector, nobody is investing unless it is a matter of life and death. Corporate balance sheets are depleted.
Sectoral impact: If the textile sector (ready-to-wear apparel) is suffering at 10 out of 10, other sectors are at 7 to 8 points.