🇹🇷 Inflation Forecast 2026: Why the Central Bank Is Missing the Mark and How to Profit from It?
Everyone is discussing how the Turkish Central Bank is desperately attempting to "choke off" consumer demand with high interest rates and credit card limits. Yet economists are posing an uncomfortable question: what if the inflation problem in Türkiye is not that people are buying too much, but that the country has stopped producing?
Let us examine the figures that explain why food in Türkiye is so expensive and which equities on the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) can help preserve your capital.
✂️ The Consumption-Production Scissors
In classical economics, prices rise for two reasons: either demand is excessively high, or supply is severely constrained. The Ministry of Treasury and Finance's current program targets only demand. However, official GDP statistics from TurkStat (TÜİK) from early 2019 through late 2025 reveal a staggering structural imbalance:
- 🛒 Household Consumption: Rose by nearly 70% (in real terms). The public was snapping up goods to preserve purchasing power against currency depreciation. The Central Bank is right on one point—demand is indeed overheated.
- 🏭 Industry: Grew in lockstep with consumption until the end of 2021, but then began to lose momentum and stagnate.
- 🌾 Agriculture: The most alarming metric. Over 6.5 years, the agricultural production volume index fell from 100 to 99.9. Net growth amounted to exactly 0%. Beginning in late 2024, it entered an outright decline.
🍅 Unraveling Food Inflation
Many wonder: why, despite such aggressive tightening by the Central Bank, do food prices in Türkiye refuse to decline?
The answer is simple: you cannot endlessly consume what you do not produce.
Agriculture is mired in a severe crisis. Tight monetary policy (expensive credit) strikes not only consumers, but also farmers who require working capital for fertilizers, raw materials, and machinery. The outcome is a textbook supply shock: demand persists, while food is physically in short supply.
📊 How Does the Agricultural Crisis Affect Food Industry Giants?
Zero growth in agriculture translates into a shortage of primary raw materials. Wheat, sugar, and barley are all rapidly becoming more expensive. In 2026, Turkish food corporations find themselves squeezed between high input costs and weakening domestic demand constrained by credit limits.
How will this impact their equities? Substantial divergence is expected across the sector:
🍪 Ülker Bisküvi (ULKER) — Rescued by Pricing Power
For manufacturers of baseline snack products, rising flour and sugar prices directly undermine gross margins. However, Ülker possesses tremendous market power. The company can pass increased costs on to the end consumer: people may postpone purchasing a new television, but they will still buy biscuits for their children.
Outlook: Revenue will continue to expand on the back of inflation, although profit margins may face temporary compression. A robust share of exports to the Middle East remains a vital lifeline for its shares.
🍻 Anadolu Efes (AEFES) and Coca-Cola İçecek (CCOLA) — The Geographic Shield
Beverage manufacturers appear in a far more resilient position in this environment. Their primary competitive edge is international diversification. A substantial portion of Anadolu Efes's revenue is generated outside Türkiye (across CIS countries, the Middle East, and Europe).
Outlook: They are insulated from Türkiye's localized agricultural downturn. For investors in 2026, shares in these companies serve as an effective "defensive asset" and a hedge against domestic Turkish risks.
💡 Investment Takeaway for 2026: The current fight against inflation remains one-sided. Policymakers are treating the illness by starving the patient of food (demand), while neglecting production incentives. Raw material costs will remain elevated throughout the year.
Core Rule: Avoid purely domestic Turkish food companies that depend on local raw materials and lack a formidable export footprint. They will be eroded by cost-push inflation. If investing in Türkiye's food and beverage sector, focus on companies where FX-denominated or international revenue exceeds 40%.