Second update as of 22 September 2026. Our previous analysis, with the liquidation mechanics and the crisis timeline, is in the blog.
What changed
The liquidation window doubled. By a decision dated 20 September (bulletin 2026/62), the Capital Markets Board extended the maximum liquidation period for the 131 funds from three to six months, three days after setting the original term. The stated reason: the portfolio structures of the funds and market conditions. The rest of the procedure is unchanged, payouts still arrive in tranches as assets are sold, and six months is a ceiling, not a fixed term.
The outflow spread beyond the seven firms. Money market funds lost 313.7 billion lira in a week, roughly 2.7 billion dollars, and this was not confined to the closed funds: bank-affiliated funds saw heavy redemptions too. More than 54,000 investors left the segment, which still holds over 3.96 million investors.
Pressure on the exchange continued. The previous week closed with BIST 100 down 8.18%. On Monday the index fell below 13,000 intraday for the first time since March 2025; 134 of 607 traded shares hit the lower limit and 140 opened down 5% or more. The impact is concentrated in the shares that filled the liquidating funds' portfolios.
The investigation widened. Money and asset movements of executives and authorised signatories of nine entities, including Pusula, Tera, Hedef, Bulls and Ufuk, have been frozen. The restrictions extend to spouses and first-degree relatives: any transaction reducing their assets requires the prosecutor's knowledge. Notices went to the banking associations, the notaries union, the land registry, the maritime and civil aviation authorities and MASAK.
New mechanisms under discussion. Reportedly under consideration: pooling the assets of the 131 funds into a single vehicle (who would manage it is unresolved, and a regulatory change may be required), and raising the qualified investor threshold above the current 10 million lira.
Our analysis
The certainty the procedure delivered was immediately diluted. Yesterday the main improvement was the arrival of a mechanism and a horizon. Doubling the term three days after setting it returns part of that uncertainty: an investor who expected money by December is now looking at March. The planning conclusion: assume six months, and treat earlier tranches as a welcome exception.
The extension is not a deterioration in asset quality, it is a refusal to dump. The regulator tied the decision directly to portfolio structures: some holdings in the liquidating funds are illiquid and still falling. Selling them over six months rather than three means smaller losses for investors and less pressure on the exchange. It is the right call, but it shifts the cost onto time.
The key shift: this is no longer a seven-firm problem. A 2.7 billion dollar weekly outflow from money market funds includes funds of major banks where nothing went wrong. This is no longer the liquidation of a scheme segment, it is a confidence crisis across the whole category. An investor locked out of a fund rated 2 for risk draws a conclusion about the instrument, not about one company.
Where the money went, and why it matters. Goldman Sachs estimates lira deposits grew by about 20 billion dollars in September, while the deposit rate fell to 43.9%. Savers moved into deposits even at declining yields, choosing access over return. Banks are again the beneficiary of the crisis: first as recipients of central bank liquidity, then as liquidation executors, now as a refuge for the money that fled. For depositors this confirms what we said from the start: the banking layer was never the source of the problem.
The cost of stabilisation is visible in reserves. Central bank gross reserves fell 9 billion dollars in the week to 17 September, to 180 billion (7 billion excluding gold valuation effects). Containing the crisis was not free, and that is worth keeping in mind when assessing lira stability in the coming months.
November has not gone away. The longer the liquidation runs and the wider the outflow spreads, the weaker Türkiye's position ahead of the MSCI index review. It remains the key date of the quarter.
What to do
Holders of frozen units: reset expectations to six months, follow the KAP pages of your funds, tranches arrive in your account without any application. Investors in money market funds outside the seven: your neighbours' panic is not a reason to exit at a loss, but it is a reason to look at your fund's composition and its share of illiquid holdings. Everyone: remember the money left funds for deposits, not for another country. This is a change of instrument, not a flight from the jurisdiction.
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