Here is a tough yet brutally honest demographic analysis by Ussal Sahbaz. While politicians and social media debate how to raise the birth rate in Türkiye, the author suggests stopping the search for uniquely Turkish problems and taking a look at global economics and sociology.
Main thesis: The problem is not housing costs. The problem is that women have become more educated, while traditional male gender roles have remained unchanged.
The material has been prepared in the Demographic & Societal Analysis format.
🇹🇷 Demographics 2026: Why Has Türkiye Stopped Having Children?
The fertility rate in Türkiye has dropped below 1.5 children per woman (down from 2.5 in the 2000s). We are rapidly approaching the figures seen in Spain and South Korea. However, attempts to solve this problem with money or moral appeals are doomed to fail.
Sahbaz dismantles popular myths and explains the true causes of the demographic winter.
👇 The anatomy of childlessness:
🌍 1. This Is Not Just a Turkish Problem (And the Exception of Israel)
The decline in fertility is a natural byproduct of wealth and development. Among all developed OECD countries, only one has a rate exceeding 2 children per woman: Israel.
Why do they have children there?
- The influence of ultra-Orthodox communities (around 6 children per woman).
- In the secular segment (2.5 children), marriages occur very early, often during compulsory joint military service at age 18.
🎓 2. The Claudia Goldin Effect: Women Have Changed, Men Have Not
Nobel laureate in economics Claudia Goldin identified a pattern that perfectly describes Türkiye. If a country becomes wealthier while gender roles remain conservative, birth rates collapse.
Why do educated women refuse to give birth?
- Age: Because of education, the birth of the first child shifts from age 18 to ages 25–30 (narrowing the biological window).
- Opportunity costs: An educated woman loses out on earnings and career growth by staying at home.
- The "Reliability" criterion: This is the most crucial factor. A woman asks herself a rational question: "Will this man look after the child, or will he abandon me halfway through?". Realizing that in a traditional society the entire burden of caregiving will fall on her, the woman chooses her career.
"We want to get rich, yet continue living with men who can take care neither of themselves nor of a child!"—when a society tries to have it both ways, birth rates plummet.
💸 3. The Myth of the "High Cost of Living"
The most popular excuse is: "Apartments are expensive, living is expensive, so we don't have children."
Sahbaz calls this self-deception.
- If it were about money, people in impoverished African nations (Mali, Chad), where people live in shacks, would not be having 6 children.
- The failure of subsidies: Handing out cash and tax breaks for children does not work in the long run. This was attempted as far back as the USSR, yet women, realizing that their partners would not share domestic burdens, still chose not to give birth.
🚪 4. Two Harsh but Realistic Ways Out
The primary economic risk of low fertility is: who will pay pensions to the current generation of workers?
Since forcing women to give birth is impossible, and reshaping male mindsets cannot be done quickly, the state (and society) is left with only two mathematical ways out:
- Working until death: Forgetting about early retirement. People will have to work not until age 45 or 65, but much longer.
- Opening the doors to migrants: Importing labor from regions where the population is still growing (Africa, South Asia, the Middle East).
🎯 SUMMARY
In 2026, Türkiye's demographic crisis entered the acceptance stage.
The falling birth rate is not an economic crisis; it is a crisis of an archaic family model under the conditions of a modern market economy. Both business and government must stop harboring illusions about a "baby boom" and start adapting the economy to an aging society.
Would you like me to analyze exactly how population aging in Türkiye will affect consumer markets and which business sectors (besides healthcare) stand to benefit from this over the next 5 years?